2020 – dramatic reduction in high sulphur fuel oil price predicted.

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The marine fuel sector may be small, but it has the potential to have significant influence on global crude oil and refined product markets, so said Victor Shum Vice President of IHS Markit at the recent Asian Emissions Technologies conference in Singapore.

The marine industry is the most significant demand centre for high sulphur residue from product refining, which is the most difficult stream to be processed and upgraded in refineries. If, as predicted, there is a sharp drop in demand for high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) in 2020 when the global 0.50% sulphur limit comes into force, it is likely to have an acute impact on the price differential with low sulphur fuel products. Those making the right investment decisions could be very big winners.

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And now to get ready!

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How apt that January is named after the Roman God of gateways, of beginnings and endings and of transition. As 2016 draws to a close, this is one year where we can surely look back at a momentous decision for shipping and look ahead to what must happen next.

In October IMO made the only correct and sensible decision. No delays – from 2020 the global limit on marine fuel sulphur outside of ECA’s will be 0.50%. Ships will still be able to use higher sulphur fuel with an approved exhaust gas cleaning system, provided that the reduction in SOx emissions is at least as effective as the new sulphur cap.

The Organization is to be applauded. It is not only for EGCSA members that this brings certainty, but also the whole marine industry and its supplier base. It is a definite decision, beneficial to human health and the environment, that opens the door for businesses to take action.

So, is that job done? Read more

IMO – 0.5% Sulphur Limit in 2020!

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Picture courtesy of IMO

This month, at IMO’s 70th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee it will be decided when sulphur in marine fuel is be globally limited to 0.5% for ships operating outside of Emission Control Areas. The start dates under consideration are 2020 or 2025. Read more

EGCS vendors are ready to meet 2020 demand – Nils Hoy-Petersen explains what is required and why

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Expert papers submitted to IMO will guide the 2020/2025 decision and will present various scenarios around the availability of fuel and alternative compliance technologies.

It is believed that at least one paper will use a scenario in which some 15% of the global fleet, in terms of ship numbers, are fitted with scrubbers. Depending upon the deadweight tonnage of the ships placing scrubber orders this could equate to nearer 30% of global fleet fuel consumption.

Scrubber vendors are ready to meet the demand, but are facing the challenge of delayed decision making by regulators, which results in the need for accelerated design and installation processes. An early decision is therefore essential to enable an ordered, safe and economic installation window prior to 2020. Read more