EGCS vendors are ready to meet 2020 demand – Nils Hoy-Petersen explains what is required and why

Expert papers submitted to IMO will guide the 2020/2025 decision and will present various scenarios around the availability of fuel and alternative compliance technologies.

It is believed that at least one paper will use a scenario in which some 15% of the global fleet, in terms of ship numbers, are fitted with scrubbers. Depending upon the deadweight tonnage of the ships placing scrubber orders this could equate to nearer 30% of global fleet fuel consumption.

Scrubber vendors are ready to meet the demand, but are facing the challenge of delayed decision making by regulators, which results in the need for accelerated design and installation processes. An early decision is therefore essential to enable an ordered, safe and economic installation window prior to 2020.

Risk

Plans and resources are in place to increase delivery capacity tremendously and scrubber vendors are working in a supply chain that is currently massively underutilised. However, this resource and capacity may become eroded if the entry into force of the 0.5% sulphur limit is put back to 2025 or the decision is delayed.

This capacity risk not only affects exhaust gas cleaning but also other compliance technologies. Installation of LNG networks for example are prefaced on the expectation of a certain level of demand. It has been stated that the Norwegian LNG network is at risk if a decision is not forthcoming at MEPC 70.

Vendor capability and capacity

Scrubber vendors now have significant experience with marine exhaust gas cleaning installations and while very large vessels with main engines of over 50MW have not had scrubbers fitted, virtually all types of ships have had installations.

While EGCSA currently has 17 full members it is believed that this will likely to increase to between 30 and 40 if the commercial demand is clear. Within the exhaust gas cleaning industry there is latent expertise, with land-based scrubber applications being built by over 100 companies, some of which are very large engineering organisations with vast resources.

Technical resources

Naval architects and project managers are essential for design and programme management. In the current downturn there is a rich resource of expertise including personnel from the depressed upstream oil industry.

Fabrication requires materials and workshops. On a worldwide basis engineering fabricators and ship yards are at a low ebb.  Scrubber vendors are able to take advantage as scrubbing units are essentially portable so can be fabricated pretty much anywhere in the world and then transported for installation on the ship.

Similarly, many suppliers of scrubber system ancillaries such as instruments, pumps, pipes and valves are currently operating in a downturn, which enables the complete range of supporting equipment to be secured under advantageous market conditions.

Once base components are manufactured, scrubber systems need installation onboard either as a retrofit or in a new-build and with the collapse in ship building orders there is an abundance of capacity, especially in Asian ship-yards.

Most scrubber installations require either zero or a short dry-docking, however to give an indication of the scale of available resources, approximately 10,000 ships are dry-docked every year. Add to this the loss of new building orders and there is an instant capacity availability of over 20,000 dry-dockings.

Finally, Flag State must certify every scrubber installation and this is typically undertaken by Class. Although there is perhaps an uneven level of practical experience within surveyor resources this is not seen as problematic given the extensive number of installations already delivered by scrubber manufacturers and EGCSA is more than capable of rapidly bridging any knowledge gaps.

Ready and capable

The scrubber industry is definitely ready and capable, capacity and resources are available and market conditions are favourable. All that is needed now is the green light from IMO for go.

Nils Hoy-Petersen is Chief Executive Officer of Cleanmarine